The National Debt Clock: A Financial Analysis
In 2000, the National Debt Clock was turned off due to budget surpluses. This blog looks back at the financial analysis done at the time and how it was affected by rising health care costs, aging populations, and more.
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Kevin Bambrough
Retired Investment Professional on the side of truth and fairness. Tweets are just my opinions and not advice or recommendations. Looking for 10x in 10yr stuff
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‘Plug Pulled on National Debt Clock’, I remember this well back in 2000. The thinking was then that budget surpluses would be paying off the debt so it was time to turn it off. https://t.co/bkkzdsV7Fd
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
I’m highlighting this because at that time I was doing some prudent financial analysis based many issues I was reading about. Rising health care costs, aging populations, unfunded liabilities and the likelihood that corp profits would be dropping…
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
Income tax and capital gains tax receipts would be falling and unemployment would be rising as I was predicting the bursting of the https://t.co/TK0iFFXO5k / high tech bubble. At that time people (everyone I could get to engage in longterm market debates) said I was crazy…
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
Cause I was predicting that the USA would most certainly be run a $1 trillion deficit by the year 2013. Turns out it happened in about half the time and even much greater and repeated years of it. Still I was consider ‘nuts’
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
Now looking out another 10 years or so it would not seem so crazy to expect that the USA could run a $5t deficit in a given year. And although I didn’t predict the term, ‘quantitative easing’, I said that the deficits would be so large that the only way to keep rates down…
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
And the financial system solvent will be if the central banks buy up bonds, especially gov bonds on mass while defacto owning them by guaranteeing others. (While not collecting the interest)
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
Gold went from sub $300 to nearly $2000 but the end of that decade long run. Let’s just call it 6x. Now the situation is worse. As I’ve said. Can’t take rates up like before. We are are already set to implode if rates are held here. Plus little central bank gold to dump.
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023 -
6x $2000 becomes $12000 this run. Which has me thinking 2030-2035 we will see at least $10k gold and probably $15k on a blow off. My bet is it could happen in half the time…or less though. Shits such a mess and our governments are full of old fools with an empty bags of tricks
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 6, 2023