The Complexities of Air Travel and Economic Strength
Lacy discussed the complexities of air travel and economic strength. TSA daily passenger data has matched 2019 levels and are up roughly 12% from 2022 levels, but is this a sign of economic strength? Read to find out!
Michael Green
Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
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1/n This was awesome. Lacy is so, so good.
— Michael Green (@profplum99) March 16, 2023
We had a question from the audience on air travel and economic strength which I wasn't able to address live. I've talked about this elsewhere, but it's worth highlighting as there's actually a VERY topical dynamic right now. https://t.co/FTpfYXZhjI -
2/n The TSA daily passenger data has matched 2019 levels and are up roughly 12% from 2022 levels. This is clearly a sign of economic strength, no? Well... it's complicated pic.twitter.com/knEh3bcFiC
— Michael Green (@profplum99) March 16, 2023 -
3/n Remember that TSA data captures a subset of air travel -- those who have to schlep through a commercial airport, (possibly) take of their shoes, and submit to a cavity search. Or maybe that was after the bar last Friday... bourbon. What it doesn't capture is private flights pic.twitter.com/ylxgSSoove
— Michael Green (@profplum99) March 16, 2023 -
4/n PRIVATE flights are down 20% YoY and the total number of flights is only up 1.9% YoY. And just in the last few weeks, we're seeing an atypical slowdown in private flights suggesting some serious belt tightening is happening in the corporate travel departments
— Michael Green (@profplum99) March 16, 2023 -
5/n So for those experiencing the "anecdata" of more packed flights and more packed airports, remember that as bad as it is for you, just please feel for the former corporate elite that are now forced to rub elbows with you unwashed heathens... sacrifices are being made by all pic.twitter.com/XgBVoGYqoO
— Michael Green (@profplum99) March 16, 2023 -
6/6 All a long-winded way of saying, "Achtually..." the data on air traffic suggests an economy that is a bit more mixed than your experience in the airport over Spring Break. Now pass the margaritas...
— Michael Green (@profplum99) March 16, 2023
And thanks for all who tuned in. We'll clear compliance and put on Youtube.