Investment Success Through Predictions
A look at the investment success of one individual, who looks at how the world is evolving geopolitically and economically. He also looks at how supply and demand will affect commodity prices and capital flow into various sectors.
Kevin Bambrough
Retired Investment Professional on the side of truth and fairness. Tweets are just my opinions and not advice or recommendations. Looking for 10x in 10yr stuff
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Fyi. I block people who tell me to stick to uranium. It’s rude and insulting. My historical investment success came from simply trying to make my best predictions on how the world is evolving both geopolitically and seeing economic shifts early
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
I also look for not just how supply and demand will effect things like commodity prices but also how capital is likely to flow into various sectors, currencies, and identifying what is likely peaking in bubble valuations and what is likely bottoming and attractive
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
I try to make the best calls I can based on all the data I can consume and my studies on greed, fear and human nature in general.
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023
Some people like to engage in banter around things like ‘Fed watching’. I prefer to try to predict what major actors will do 6 months or often 1-2… -
It’s a relaxing way of investing. When interest rates are obviously bottoming and QE is extreme. Prepare for the rug pull. When rates are high like now and the yield curve is inverted. Get ready for the money printing and rate slashing that will inevitably come
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
The real question is always what’s the best way to set myself up with cheap leverage for the next couple years based on what I think is most certain to occur. 2 years ago. Leveraged bets on physical uranium were a cheap no brainer. Delivered +350% while most uranium juniors got…
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
Example. When uranium was at 31 back in the summer of 2021 you could buy uranium on the curve for April 2023 @ $34. Basically 2 year cal for 10%. The outperformance of that call vs uranium shitcos is off the charts.
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
The big question I have now is when will sanctions be lifted on Russia. It’s significant along with Ukrainian opening up for investment. That and also watching soft commodity price inflation as many crops seem to be in jeopardy due to extreme weather in various locations
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
Also if note. I didn’t study uranium so I could invest in it. I studied the history markets and politics/human behaviour and it lead me to see the opportunity in uranium at the right times. Then I dug in on individual companies and leveraged general mining knowledge I picked…
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
The mining industry routinely demonstrates its complete lack of discipline. Execs seem more than happy to focus on production even when there’s no historical ROI. Most juniors are cash burning maniacs that always talk a good game but continue drain there cash reserves
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
They get themselves in a bind and dilute the fuck out shareholders then re-up there stock options. They merger and grow when ever they can do increase market cap or production or what ever metric they can use to justify higher compensation.
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023 -
This human behaviour makes trading and timing essential when it comes to resource investing. These are not prudent stable cashflow oriented managers.
— Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) June 25, 2023
In fact those that are typically hedge or forward sell way too much during low inflation / bear markets and destroy big upside…