Causation vs. Correlation: What is the Difference?
This post provides a good opportunity to learn about causation vs. correlation. Understand the difference between reverse causation, third-factor causation, and the implications of each.
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦
Writes about economics, tweets about rabbits. For serious opinions/analysis, read my blog: https://t.co/KfUxUlCYPz
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1/This post provides a good opportunity to learn about causation vs. correlation!
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) March 15, 2023
First, check out this regression, and see if you can think of another interpretation besides "DEI causes discomfort". https://t.co/nHRz6ccHpn -
2/In fact, there are *two* pretty obvious alternative explanations for this correlation.
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) March 15, 2023
1. Perhaps discomfort causes DEI (reverse causation)
2. Perhaps discomfort and DEI are both caused by a third thing (third-factor causation) -
It's reasonable that if students feel discomfort, they might insist on hiring more DEI people, as a way to try to reduce their discomfort.
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) March 15, 2023
Remember that hospital visits are correlated with death, but this doesn't mean avoiding the hospital will increase your chances of life. -
Now let's think about third-factor causation.
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) March 15, 2023
Perhaps the kind of school that hires a bunch of DEI people is also the same kind of school with a highly sensitive student body (or highly sensitive administrators) who tend to feel lots of discomfort. -
Reverse causation and third-factor causation are things you should always think about when you see regressions like this. A regression is just a correlation.
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) March 15, 2023 -
Instead of just saying "correlation isn't causation" like a mantra, we should train ourselves to instantly think of how reverse causation or third-factor causation could be at work.
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) March 15, 2023
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