The Mathematics of Quitting Poker
Poker is one of the most difficult games to quit, but if you look at it through a mathematical lens, you can make the right decision every time. Learn the first step of knowing your hourly rate and how to make the right decisions.
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Phil Galfond
Pro poker player, founder of @RunItOnce & @RunitOncePoker. Sharing insights on poker, business, & life with a non-traditional career.
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Quitting as a loser in Poker is one of the hardest things to do.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
You're tired and tilted, and you want to get even.
But if you step back and look at it through this mathematical lens, you’ll make the right decision every time…🧵 pic.twitter.com/E0equkmDY6 -
Know your hourly rate:
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
This is the first step.
You're playing in a $5/$10 live game. Your winrate is +20bb ($200) per 100 hands.
There are about 33 hands dealt per hour, so you average $67/hr.
What my friend and mentor, @TheTommyAngelo taught me to do next opened my eyes… -
Let’s say after playing all day, you’re down $5,000.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
Of course, this is not great.
But not that crazy a loss for those stakes.
At this point,
you might even know you should quit.
But instead, you ask yourself:
“The game’s pretty good. Should I play another hour?”
🤔… -
When you find yourself in a scenario like this, take Tommy’s advice:
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
Remember that poker is about thinking in terms of your average hourly earnings.
In a spot like this,
it’s still possible to win a huge pot and get halfway unstuck.
But… -
Let’s put things into perspective.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
Your hourly rate is $67.
What you’re really doing is:
Playing for another hour, when you’re down $5k, likely not playing very well, only to make $67 back.
Ask yourself: "Do I really want to push through to earn another $67 *if* I play well?" -
Let’s be real…
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
You’re just aiming to get lucky.
But you want to make that $5,000 back, but mathematically, you’ll only make $67 in the next hour.
Remember:
We're not playing poker to get lucky.
We're playing poker to earn a nice hourly rate over a sustained period of time. -
This simple mental reframe, thinking about your average hourly rate, can help you make better quitting decisions.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023
Thanks, @TheTommyAngelo, for this valuable lesson!
If you found it helpful & think your poker friends might too, share by retweeting the 1st tweet of the thread: https://t.co/XCS7FJO7vx