The Mathematics of Quitting Poker

Quitting as a loser in Poker is one of the hardest things to do.

You're tired and tilted, and you want to get even.

But if you step back and look at it through this mathematical lens, you’ll make the right decision every time…🧵 pic.twitter.com/E0equkmDY6

— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023

Know your hourly rate:

This is the first step.

You're playing in a $5/$10 live game. Your winrate is +20bb ($200) per 100 hands.

There are about 33 hands dealt per hour, so you average $67/hr.

What my friend and mentor, @TheTommyAngelo taught me to do next opened my eyes…

— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023

Let’s say after playing all day, you’re down $5,000.
Of course, this is not great.

But not that crazy a loss for those stakes.

At this point,

you might even know you should quit.

But instead, you ask yourself:

“The game’s pretty good. Should I play another hour?”

🤔…

— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023

When you find yourself in a scenario like this, take Tommy’s advice:

Remember that poker is about thinking in terms of your average hourly earnings.

In a spot like this,

it’s still possible to win a huge pot and get halfway unstuck.

But…

— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023

Let’s put things into perspective.

Your hourly rate is $67.

What you’re really doing is:

Playing for another hour, when you’re down $5k, likely not playing very well, only to make $67 back.

Ask yourself: "Do I really want to push through to earn another $67 *if* I play well?"

— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023

Let’s be real…

You’re just aiming to get lucky.

But you want to make that $5,000 back, but mathematically, you’ll only make $67 in the next hour.

Remember:

We're not playing poker to get lucky.

We're playing poker to earn a nice hourly rate over a sustained period of time.

— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) March 4, 2023