Exploring the Data Behind 1st Round QB Success and Failure
Explore the data behind 1st round QB success and failure. Understand why teams have found Super Bowl glory by acquiring older, veteran QBs of late and the commonalities between the last 4 Super Bowl winners.
Warren Sharp
Inventing custom, predictive NFL analytics & visualized data at https://t.co/iKdUa4MmXQ | @SportsGrid | @ringer | @NFLonFOX
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QBs on cheap rookie deals are values
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
but how often do they actually achieve the goal of building a true contender?
why have many teams found Super Bowl glory by acquiring older, vet QBs of late?
a 🧵 sharing data behind 1st round QB success & failurehttps://t.co/ZiLHw7eyVY -
only 5 QBs have won a Super Bowl since 2014:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
Tom Brady
Nick Foles
Peyton Manning
what do the last 4 have in common?
they won a Super Bowl for a team that didn’t draft them, but instead acquired them, and most did so in Year 1 with the new team -
38 QBs have been drafted in the first round since the rookie wage scale of 2011
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
they've played 214 seasons
the team that drafted those players made the playoffs 19.2% of the time
for context: 43.8% of all teams make the playoffs (it was 37.5% for most of this span) -
only 6 of 38 first round QBs advanced their team to the NFL's Final 4 (Conference Championships) while on their rookie deal
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
only one of 38 QB led their team to a Super Bowl victory
Patrick Mahomes -
these 38 first round quarterbacks drafted since 2011 have made a total of 1,909 starts
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
their combined record?
1034-1035-7 -
of the 38 first round QBs drafted since 2011, 10 are still on their rookie deal
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
of the other 28 QBs, the average duration they were the primary starter for the team that drafted them was 3.4 years
only 11 (39%) were given a second deal with the team that drafted them -
the average age of starting QBs league-wide is 28.6 years (28.5 if we remove Tom Brady)
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
average age of starting QBs in the playoffs is 29.5 years (28.7 if we remove Tom Brady)
average age of starting QBs that win a playoff game is 30.0 years (28.8 if we remove Tom Brady) -
the NFL has become so intoxicated with the thought of a first round QB on a rookie deal they've forgot how infrequently that strategy results in true success
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 30, 2023
I wholeheartedly believe drafting a first round QB >>> overpaying a mediocre QB
and if I can't https://t.co/ZiLHw7eyVY…